Reality Check-In. What Happened to Those Big 2026 Predictions?
At the start of the year, our corporate travel trends 2026 predictions were right on the nose.
Bleisure was booming. Sustainability was non-negotiable. AI was going to transform business travel management. NDC was finally having its moment, and in-person meetings and business events had a firm foothold in corporate travel budgets… and with good reason.
Corporate travel spending was projected to reach between $1.62 trillion and $1.72 trillion by 2026, driven by surging demand for face-to-face engagement.
Then February rolled in, and the Middle East travel restrictions turned everything on its head. More than 30,000 flights were cancelled globally. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad - the backbone of long-haul travel from South Africa -saw ticket volumes collapse by 56%. Qatar Airways was worst affected, down 77%. As corporates scrambled onto alternative travel routes, seat availability evaporated and fares surged. In some cases, FCM travel managers watched business class fares to Europe breach R200,000, and climb further within hours.
"The volatility is unlike anything we've seen in recent memory," said Jaco Brits, Head of Sales and Account Management at FCM South Africa. "We're quoting a fare, and by the time approval comes back, the price has moved significantly. Seats that existed in the morning are gone by the afternoon."
FCM decided to see how the 2026 predictions are holding up.
The accelerators
1. AI travel management (with human oversight)
Still living up to the hype. Real-time rebooking algorithms, risk assessment tools, and automated expense management are making traveller support faster when things go wrong.
Before 2026, more than half of business travellers were already letting AI travel management handle the entire booking process, and widespread adoption of AI-powered tools for real-time risk monitoring was already well underway. But here is what the disruptions revealed: digital travel solutions alone are not enough.
When Middle East airspace changes triggered a wave of urgent rebooking requests, it was the collaboration between human agents and intelligent systems at FCM that delivered results.
Think of it as Travel Mixology: AI-powered, friction-free booking enhanced by human judgement at the moments that matter most. The best corporate travel app still needs an experienced travel manager on the other end when a stranded executive needs to get home.
Travel tech innovations are accelerating, but the human element has never been more valuable.
2. Cost control and travel expense management
Absolutely flying. Air travel remains one of the single biggest operational costs in business travel, determined by fuel price impact and limited airline capacity. So, when corporate travel budgets tightened - compounded by flight price increases and longer alternative travel routes - CFOs started demanding the proper spend visibility that comes with platforms like the FCM platform.
This shift isn’t going anywhere. Corporate travel budgets in 2026 are increasingly focused on balancing spend with traveller experience, measurable ROI, and smarter forecasting, not solely on how to reduce costs. And in our country specifically, the corporate travel market is projected to reach approximately $3 billion by the end of 2026, growing at around 9.3% annually, which means greater scrutiny, not less, on every booking decision.
The companies winning right now are the ones who can show exactly where every rand went and why it was worth it.
3. Risk management technology
The surprise winner. While everyone was talking about bleisure growth, smart companies were building bulletproof contingency systems, because in today's environment, unmanaged travel equals unmanaged risk.
When Middle East travel restrictions hit, organisations with robust business travel management infrastructure responded within hours rather than days: live dashboards, automated alerts, real-time itinerary data shared directly with travel managers, and instant push notifications to travellers in affected regions via the FCM app integrated with Crisis24. The companies without that infrastructure were left scrambling.
4. Duty of care
With geopolitical impact on business travel intensifying, duty of care remains the single constant. A significant majority of employees say they would decline a business trip if they felt unsafe, reinforcing that risk management is not optional. And the UN Tourism predicts a five-to-six month recovery period.
The stallers
1. Sustainable business travel
Remember when everyone was going to offset their way to net zero? Then flight route disruptions forced longer alternative travel routes, emissions went up, and those green pledges started to pale a bit. Eco-friendly corporate travel, carbon offset programmes, and ESG compliance remain important. The truth is that sustainability legislation isn't going away, and South African corporates are increasingly required to measure and report emissions as part of their travel planning. Some companies are even implementing carbon budgets that make a slightly pricier direct flight the smarter choice over a cheaper indirect route. But most have quietly shuffled these commitments down the priority list for now. The uncomfortable tension between operational necessity and carbon footprint reduction is one of the defining challenges of the second half of 2026.
2. Premium economy demand
A sensible middle ground.. and it'll stay there for now. But with business travel costs rising and economy cabins on alternative carriers selling out, flexible and premium fares are increasingly the only option.
"We're seeing customers who would never have considered a flexible fare now actively requesting them," said Brits. When a non-refundable ticket on a disrupted routing becomes a liability rather than a saving, the calculus changes fast.
Worth watching: the trends to revisit
1. NDC adoption
NDC was gaining real momentum entering 2026, and its long-term potential to transform travel booking technology remains significant. However, the Middle East disruptions exposed some friction: managing rapid changes through NDC channels created delays when speed was critical. These are growing pains, not deal-breakers. Adoption continues, with greater emphasis on building resilient fallback options alongside it.
2. Bleisure is evolving
Here's where the 2026 predictions may need revising upward. Bleisure has already become a mainstream expectation for younger professionals, and with flight price increases making every business trip more expensive to justify, extending that trip for leisure starts to look like genuine efficiency rather than a perk. Why fly twice when you can fly once? As companies move away from routine internal travel toward intentional, high-impact trips, the bleisure extension becomes an even more logical add-on. Watch this space.
3. Return to in-person meetings and business events
People are meeting face-to-face again, and corporate conferences are back on the calendar, supported by a global MICE market expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.6%.
Business events are being planned further in advance and with greater strategic intent, prioritising high-value, client-facing engagements over routine internal gatherings. But the definition of necessary travel has permanently shifted, and hybrid events are absorbing a larger share of what previously required a flight.
As some destinations become less viable due to Middle East travel restrictions, others are positioning themselves as alternatives.
South African business events infrastructure and conference venues could see a meaningful boost as meeting planners reconfigure their 2026 calendars. Disruption, as it turns out, creates opportunity.
The mid-year reality check
Here's what 2026 is actually about: operational resilience beats aspirational innovation.
The companies thriving aren't the ones with the flashiest sustainability reports or the most creative bleisure policies. They're the ones treating corporate travel as a strategic investment, with the systems, policies, and partners to back that up.
They can rebook a stranded executive, provide real-time updates to worried travel managers, and show their CFO exactly why that last-minute rerouted trip was worth every penny, even at R200,000 for a business class seat.
"The businesses that will navigate this best are the ones that act now," said Mummy Mafojane, GM FCM South Africa. "A prolonged recovery is the most likely scenario. Build your travel programme around that reality."
The travel industry has always been about solving problems when things go wrong. 2026 has just reminded everyone that the stakes are higher, the disruptions are faster, and the bar for a seamless response has never been greater.